From Newsgroup: rec.food.cooking

They can always migrate to one of the violent shithole states like
Floriduh.


Florida’s Housing Market Reckoning: Overbuilt, Overpriced, and Now
Unraveling

Drive through any new development in Florida today, and you’ll see a
strange paradox. Fresh homes rising out of the ground. Streets still
smelling of new pavement. Empty driveways. "For Sale" signs swinging in the breeze.

It looks like a boom.

But this isn’t a boom.

It’s the loud silence before a correction.

The Builders Keep Building. The Buyers Have Vanished.

Welcome to the Florida housing market in 2025—a place where homebuilders
are racing against time, flooding the state with inventory that fewer and fewer people want or can afford.

In Manatee County, home values are down 6% year-over-year, outpacing the
state average of 3.6%. But that hasn’t stopped developers from pouring concrete. In some communities, brand-new townhomes are hitting the market
for $250,000—a price cut that would’ve been unthinkable two years ago. Detached homes hover around $360,000, often with incentives like mortgage
rate buydowns to 5%.

But here’s the catch: even at these discounts, buyers are nowhere to be
found.

Migration Has Collapsed. And That Changes Everything.

Florida’s pandemic-era gold rush is over. In 2025, inbound migration is
down 80% from its peak. Once a magnet for remote workers and retirees
fleeing expensive states, Florida has become a victim of its own
success—too hot, too expensive, and too uncertain.

Insurance costs have skyrocketed. Climate risks have made headlines. And
now, with many workers being pulled back into physical offices, the exodus
is reversing.

182,000 Homes. A State-Sized Inventory Problem.

As of May 2025, Florida has 182,000 resale homes sitting on the market.
That’s the highest inventory in a decade—and 50% more than Texas, a state
with a larger population.

And we’re not even counting the builder inventory. The result? Prices are sinking—and fast. One homeowner in the area listed their home for $265,000, after buying it for $315,000 less than two years ago. That’s a $50K
haircut, and a sign of what’s coming.

A Market Where Land Is Cheap—and Value Is Cheaper

Unlike urban cores where land is scarce, much of Florida’s sprawl has room
to expand. Builders can (and will) keep constructing nearly identical homes
on cheap plots—and that’s a death sentence for appreciation.

When land is abundant and inventory keeps growing, the value of your home
has little to do with scarcity—and everything to do with timing.

Which Florida Markets Are Falling the Fastest?

According to Zillow, these counties are leading the decline:

Charlotte County: -9.5%

Sarasota County: -8.4%

Collier County (Naples): -6.5%

Manatee County: -6%

Palm Beach: -3.2%

Miami-Dade: Now turning negative month-over-month

Even luxury enclaves like Naples and Palm Beach—once considered safe
bets—are in retreat.

Builders Are Slashing Margins to Stay in the Game

Why are developers still building? Because it’s about market share, not margin. Big names like Lennar and DR Horton are sacrificing profit to keep
a grip on Florida’s market. In fact, Lennar reported its worst Q1 profit margin in a decade—yet their crews are still pouring slabs in Parish and beyond.

They're not selling homes. They're defending territory.

What’s Next? Expect More Pain Before Affordability Returns

Housing Data projects another 5.5% drop in Florida home prices over the
next year, with some regions seeing up to 10% declines. From the peak, this could result in a total correction of 20%—bringing Florida prices closer to sustainable levels.

Affordability is the key.

Before the pandemic, you could afford a home in Florida on a $40,000
salary. Today? The monthly payment has risen from $1,000 to $2,500. But incomes haven’t kept up. Until they do—or prices come down—demand will
remain stalled.

Final Word: Don’t Mistake Construction for Confidence

Seeing new homes pop up in your area isn’t a bullish sign—it’s a red flag. When builders keep building into a buyer retreat, that’s not optimism.
That’s overextension. It’s how bubbles burst, not how recoveries begin.

So whether you’re a buyer, seller, or investor: watch the inventory. Track overvaluation rates. And remember—when supply overwhelms demand, only one thing can happen to prices.
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